When Will We Know the Winner of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election?

 American voters are heading to the polls on Tuesday to decide their next president.

Typically, U.S. election results are announced state-by-state, often within hours of polls closing, giving a real-time tally as votes are counted. However, this year’s close race could mean a longer wait for the final outcome.

When is the 2024 presidential election result expected? The first polls close at 6:00 PM EST (11:00 PM GMT) on Tuesday, with the last closing at 1:00 AM EST (6:00 AM GMT) early Wednesday. In some past elections, the winner has been declared late on election night or early the next morning. But given the tight competition in several key states, news outlets may wait longer to project a winner.

Kamala Harris, the Democratic Vice President, and Donald Trump, the Republican former president, have been neck-and-neck in the polls. Narrow victories could trigger recounts, especially in critical swing states like Pennsylvania, where a recount is required if the margin is within 0.5%. In 2020, for example, Pennsylvania's final margin was just over 1.1%.

Additionally, legal disputes could further delay results. Over 100 lawsuits have already been filed, primarily by Republicans, challenging voter eligibility and management of voter rolls. Other issues, such as disruptions at polling stations, may also slow down the process.

Progress in Vote Counting Some areas, like Michigan, have accelerated vote-counting since the last election, and fewer mail-in votes are expected compared to 2020, when COVID-19 drove up mail voting.

When Will We Know the Winner? In 2020, it took four days for media outlets to declare Joe Biden the winner after Pennsylvania’s results clarified his lead. In contrast, in 2016, Donald Trump’s victory was announced just hours after polls closed. However, the 2000 election was an outlier, with the final decision delayed by five weeks due to a Supreme Court ruling on Florida’s recount.

Swing States to Watch Seven key swing states will likely determine the outcome, with early voting records showing high turnout in some. Georgia’s polls close at 7:00 PM EST (12:00 AM GMT), with an estimated 75% of votes counted within two hours. North Carolina follows shortly after, with its results expected by the end of election night.

In Pennsylvania, polls close at 8:00 PM EST (1:00 AM GMT), but it could take 24 hours or more to identify a clear winner. Michigan’s voting ends at 9:00 PM EST (2:00 AM GMT), with a final result likely by the end of Wednesday. Similarly, Wisconsin and Arizona are expected to take until at least early Wednesday for significant results. Nevada could require even more time, as the state accepts mail ballots arriving by November 9.

Caution with Early Voting Data In close races, early voting totals can be misleading. For instance, in 2020, Donald Trump held an initial lead in some states, only for Joe Biden to pull ahead as mail-in ballots were counted, a phenomenon dubbed the “red mirage.” This year could see similar shifts, depending on voter demographics and methods.

So far, over 83 million Americans have cast their ballots early, with women comprising 54% of that number, a potential advantage for Harris. However, registered Republicans have increased their share of early votes, making the result harder to predict.

How Does Vote Counting Work? Election officials conduct a thorough process to verify, process, and count votes, with strict rules regarding public oversight and partisan monitoring. The first ballots counted are those cast on Election Day, followed by early, mail, and provisional ballots. Local officials confirm each ballot's validity through a process called canvassing, which includes steps like checking for voter eligibility and examining ballots for damage.

After the Election After all votes are counted, the U.S. electoral college system comes into play. States allocate their electoral votes to the candidate who wins the popular vote within that state, a process finalized in December when electors meet to confirm their votes. Congress will then meet on January 6 to certify the results.

Since the 2020 election, new reforms have made it more difficult to contest certified results, and the vice president no longer has the authority to unilaterally reject electoral votes. Nevertheless, local or state-level challenges could still arise. Both Trump and other top Republican figures have not committed to accepting the outcome if he loses, indicating that delays and disputes could extend beyond election night.