How resounding was Kamala Harris’s debate?

 

Vice President Kamala Harris delivered a strikingly strong debate performance on Tuesday night, a win that is being described as one of the most decisive in recent memory. Early polls indicate Harris’s victory was significant, with CNN reporting she won 63% to 37% among debate-watchers, and YouGov showing a 54% to 31% margin among registered voters who watched part of the debate. 

These results are reminiscent of the large margins seen in past debates, such as Joe Biden’s 60-28 win over Donald Trump in 2020 and Hillary Clinton’s 62-27 victory over Trump in 2016. Harris’s performance stands out, surpassing the margins from 20 other CNN-posted polls dating back to 1984. 

Despite the strong debate showing, the impact on voter preferences is mixed. Trump supporters still favored him over Harris on key issues like the economy and immigration. However, there is notable potential for Harris to benefit from the debate, as a significant number of Trump supporters indicated the debate made them reconsider their vote, even if it did not change it outright. This reconsideration could have implications for the race if even a small portion of Trump’s base shifts.

Harris struggled to leverage her position as the 2020 primary season progressed. However, her recent debate performance comes at a crucial time in her campaign. While we'll need more comprehensive data than instant polls to fully gauge its impact, it’s clear that the debate was a positive boost for her.

Trump, on the other hand, seemed to falter with his often vague plans. Despite concerns about Harris’s policy details, debate-watchers felt she offered a "better plan for solving the country’s problems" by a 42-33 margin, a significant reversal from the first debate when Trump was viewed as having a superior plan by a 15-point margin.

Harris also saw a six-point increase in favorable opinions among debate-watchers, rising from 39 percent before the debate to 45 percent after. This marks the largest image gain for a candidate in CNN's debate polling since 2008.

Nevertheless, this wasn’t the largest shift overall. In the 2020 vice-presidential debate against Mike Pence, Harris won decisively, with her favorable ratings rising by seven points among debate-watchers.

This underscores a reality that might have been underestimated: Harris is a skilled debater. Despite her initial unpopularity and the early end of her 2020 Democratic presidential campaign, she has consistently performed well in debates. Polls from early 2019 indicated she was viewed as the winner in debates by significant margins, and a poll in Iowa showed that half of the voters were impressed by her performances, surpassing other candidates by over 20 points. More information